To stem the Covid-19 epidemic, many countries are banking on collective immunity. “Herd immunity” or “herd immunity” corresponds to the level of immune protection of a population against the virus. If this collective immunity is obtained, many people will be immune to Covid-19. Conclusion: the risk of transmitting the virus will be lower because it will circulate less.
Collective immunity is “insufficient” in France to emerge from the Covid-19 epidemic
According to the President of the Scientific Council Jean-François Delfraissy, we should not immediately rely on this strategy to get out of the coronavirus epidemic and prevent a second wave in France. “In France, it is estimated that around 10% of the French population has been in contact with the virus whether or not they have had symptoms”, declared the president of the Scientific Council, this Wednesday, August 5 on France Inter. “In some regions little affected by the virus, it is rather around 5% or 6%. In the Paris region and in the East, which have been greatly affected, it is rather around 12-13%”, he nuanced.
“So we did not reach” group immunity on the territory, details Jean-François Delfraissy. And for good reason, it would be necessary that 50 to 60% of the population have been infected by Covid-19 for collective immunity to be acquired. “This is the reason why the occurrence of a second wave is possible since we have a population immunity which is insufficient to protect ourselves”, he continued.
Covid-19: a second wave is “possible” in the fall
The President of the Scientific Council indicated that the situation in France is “controlled but fragile”. “Our concern is that in the fall, with climate change, and the fact that we live less outside, we will have a significant return of the virus. This is called a possible second wave”, he developed.
“We are not in the situation of January or February: we are with a virus that is circulating, which does not circulate at the same level, and we have distancing measures to limit the number of cases. Either the virus is circulating from very strongly in September and these measures will have to be canceled, or we are in a controlled situation. After all, the second wave is not scheduled for September but for November “, explained Jean-François Delfraissy.
“There is no certainty that there will be a second wave, but it is possible. We have tools to tackle it”. That is why “for 20 large cities, we have asked to plan real partial containment plans”, being that the“we will do everything to avoid confinement”, said the President of the Scientific Council.
Covid-19: young people “will be the first affected at the start of the school year if we have a significant recovery”
Jean-François Delfraissy also returned to the controversial proposal of Eric Caumes, infectious disease specialist at Pitié-Salpêtrière in Paris. The latter suggested “letting young people contaminate each other” to obtain collective immunity. The president of the scientific council clarified: “The young population understood that the risk to them was relatively low, but did not understand that they had to protect themselves to protect others – and also to protect their own future, because they will be the first affected at the start of the school year if we have a major recovery and they cannot work “, underlined Jean-François Delfraissy.
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