the government’s 4 scenarios facing the resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic

After the confinement period of more than two months, the summer holidays are an opportunity for the French to get some fresh air and rediscover some semblance of small pleasures … But it is also an opportunity for the Covid-19 to circulate again, as evidenced by the figures communicated daily.

The return to school in September will also be placed under the sign of vigilance. With a potential risk of a resumption of the epidemic, feared by specialists, the government had to take measures to limit the spread of the virus.

Based on a report of Members of the Scientific Council published in early June, the executive was able to imagine 4 possible scenarios, with measures adapted to each case.

1st scenario: the spread of the virus is under control

This first scenario concerns the case, where the coronavirus epidemic is under control, with “stabilized indicators”, through compliance with barrier measures, and the provision of tests to identify infected people and ensure that they do not spread the virus.

The strategy “test – trace – isolate” would then be appropriate, with “the strict maintenance of barrier measures and control measures in the general population”.

2nd scenario: the virus would still circulate, but in a localized manner

In this second case, we would have a “active but localized circulation of the virus”, and the objective would then be to ensure that these identified clusters do not extend over the territory.

After having precisely identified the clusters, “localized and early measures” should be applied (reinforcement of barrier gestures, possibly localized confinement, a massive testing strategy with the local population, etc.).

3rd scenario: the virus begins to spread more widely

This third scenario designates the case “a diffuse resumption of the epidemic over a sufficiently large territory such as a region or at the national level and without good monitoring of the chains of transmission”.

Measures can then be taken on a population group or in a defined geographical area, in order to slow the spread of Covid-19 and contain the epidemic.

The strategy would be “‘activation of all the measures of the prevention and reinforced protection plan (P2R-COVID plan)”, as recommended by the Scientific Council.

4th scenario: the epidemic is no longer contained

This fourth and last scenario designates the case where the epidemic reaches “a critical stage”, that is to say that none of the measures taken so far have made it possible to limit the spread of the virus, and that it continues to progress on the territory.

It is this type of situation that will have to push the executive to consider a new general containment, taking into account both the impact of the health crisis, and the economic and social situation of the country.

“This scenario 4 must absolutely be avoided but it cannot be eliminated, hence the importance of anticipating.”, would like to clarify the Scientific Council.



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